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m1000
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 11, 2011 11:08 am    Post subject: michael jordan thread: 90's / autographs / memorablia Reply with quote

JUNE 25 2011
so this thread was previously called: jordan skeptics, you opinions wanted.

BUT based on slobby's recommendation (which i think is a good one!) maybe we should have a central jordan talk thread?
we'll see how this goes. hopefully it catches on.

MIKE

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ok, this is a general question not meant to attack anyone's opinion. i just want to get a better idea about your thoughts, if you're in the belief that jordan insert prices are over inflated and these current prices are "fake"

i've read people's opinions that there is a bubble, that the market will crash, and crash hard. while no one has been specific and they're generally vague when this issue comes up, i'm hoping to get a little more detailed.

hopefully, if you're a skeptic, you can shed some light on your opinion for me.

1 what does this bubble apply to?
is it all encompassing or is it segmented? does it apply to only 90's inserts of mj? or does it apply to 2000's as well? is it only for numbered cards? or just for unnumbered cards? just inserts? or memorabilia and autos too?

2 when you say it will crash, what % would you define as a 'cash?' 25% of current levels? 50%? 75%? 100%?

3 also, if prices do soften, how do you determine if it is truly collectors/investors getting "out" or "dumping" as opposed to newer collectors getting their 'wants' filled, and thus, slightly lowering the overall demand as their collections fill holes

4 when do you see this crash happening? in the next 6 weeks? 6 months? 2 years? can you give it a time frame?

the thing that gets me curious the most is the term 'hype.'
when i think of the word hype and cards, i think it best applies to:

1 players cards' prices during playoff time, as each game/series can make monumental shifts in current market prices, based on media attention and collectors/investors wanting to cash in or buy before prices change dramatically in the immediate future

2 rookies, during their rookie year, as case/box/pack busters use it to sell cards they've just opened

3 players (especially young players) putting up numbers higher than expected and collectors/dealers/investors who have stock in their cards, as they try to sell them to the player collectors/hype followers who think there is more room for growth

4 obscure cards that grade and/or low pop graded cards

IMO, the michael jordan card market does not seem to follow any of those parameters in terms of what hype is.

i hope to get some answers from all this from you jordan skeptics. I know that there are a fair amount of people on hobby kings who feel that current market prices are unreal, and I hope they are confident enough to shed some specifics on their thoughts.

MIKE


Last edited by m1000 on Sat Jun 25, 2011 5:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 12, 2011 11:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

60 views... where are the skeptics? speak up please!
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't thank anyone has the half hour to type what you should probably already know... to sum up - you saw the recent Jordan 1/1 Final Floor that sold for an "amazing" $10k Rolling Eyes which is less than half of waht it was over a decade ago... nobody can know tops for sure, but it's very likely that the majority of the Jordans that have run up will be much less than they are now in a decade, if not sooner. A select few will hold value (PMG caliber cards) but most will come down - as they have in the past... What did his first 9.5 Gem Mint RC sell for? What do they go for now? How about a BGS 10? His cards will always hold value, but they rise and fall in cycles, we're just in an uptrend right now - and we can all spend hours debating why (No "best" player in the league right now - Kobe, Durant, LeBron, etc..., terrible products being released, 90's collectors who were young or couldn't afford back then buying now, etc...) but it doesn't matter. Anyone who's been collecting for several decades or more has seen many of these cycles... remember the Fleer Team Leader? Even offcentered Jordans would sell for $200 or more and was the hottest thing around... Total D... Finest Test Refractor anyone??? Even the 90's inserts selling now were hot for awhile, cooled off, then caught fire again... cooled off, and are hot again... Jordan is the best, so his cards will always do better than most - but eventually his cards will reach a point where people are happy to sell them... which will start driving the prices down a bit... then people will panic that they missed the boat and sell theirs as well... then some recent buyers will try to get out before they lose too much... cards will fall - 25%, maybe 50%, some even more... until eventually - others who always wanted the cards, or people who sold when everyone was fighting over them and pushing prices up too high - will want to buy, and the cycle will begin again... unless LeBron, Durant, or someone in 5th grade right now ends up being better than Jordan and Jordan is no longer looked at as the best - then he'll be like other greats who's cards are not worthless, but most of them are worth less and less as time goes on...

I know I still want a Jordan Team Leader as I sold mine in the mid 90's for $350, but I'm in no hurry... kinda like the Griffin Exquisite RC I sold for just under $700 a few months ago... I can buy back for hundreds less now, but I can wait for my price, which is much lower than that... even if I have to wait a decade or more and he's out of the league... Kobe Extra Exquisite Anyone???
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 12, 2011 4:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I totally agree with IversonExquisite... I know I am new to this site, but I have been a serious collector for about 20 years now. I have seen many "frenzies" where people will buy cards out of emotion and pay 2 or 3 times more than the card is worth/usually sells for. In the same sense I have seen cards that I know in the past have brought huge cash, go for figurative peanuts in certain time frames. Jordan cards have the same problem as Kobe, and a few other players cards, there is complete overkill of their cards on the market. Other than the mid to late 90's inserts, all the new 1/1's, autos, game used product that has came out since about 04-05 (for the most part) is a dime a dozen.

A good friend of mine sold a 1996-97 Big Men on Court ZPEAT Jordan for 250 on an open auction a couple years ago. We all know what that card would bring now (Over 1,500).

The bubble will burst like it always does, then it will go back up. The cycle repeats itself every few years.

As to the initial comment, I don't think Jordan is going to crash any harder than anyone else, I believe that when the crash comes It will affect the entire hobby.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 12, 2011 4:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ok i'd like to address some of those topics but I hope the conversation doesn't veer too far off from the questions in the first post.

regarding the first bgs 9.5 and bgs 10 rookies:
i think professional grading as a whole, has proven to be a niche market where the FIRST high grade of any significant card will go for an obscene premium, BECAUSE of the rarity of the population of that grade. every succeeding high grade thereafter raises the population and de-values previous known versions. there is possibility that there may always be ANOTHER bgs 9.5 or bgs 10 out there that hasn't been graded yet because it hasn't been submitted yet. the amount of possible bgs 9.5 and 10s can only get bigger, not smaller. the prices go down accordingly as population rises.

the examples of Total D, Team Leaders, Finest Test Refractors... their 'hotness' occurred in the 90's and during the days prior to ebay becoming the norm, right? is that a fair comparison?

i think the jordan market is the first sustained upward trend (at least three years running?) we've seen in the internet age, so it is somewhat uncharted territory and can't be compared to 90's card show 'hot cards' or late 90's/early 2000's internet days.

is it fair to label the jordan market simply as "hype?" how many weeks/months/years does trend need to sustain itself before the "hype" term is disregarded and the market is simply recognized as a stable long term market?
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 12, 2011 6:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd say if the $3k Jordan inserts are worth $7k a couple decades from now then it's a long term thing... a few years doesn't mean anything - and the internet may be "new" to some, but my main eBay account has been active since 1999 - and I came in late as may of my other online friends were using it for awile - since Pridigy and AOL weren't good for cards anymore...

Also - what has the US dollar done in recent years? One could easliy argue that the recent runup isn't as significant as it appears as more international collectors take advantage of a weak US dollar... we could dissect the causes forever and all will be a little right and a little wrong... but what I do know - is cycles happen and most cards end up lower over time... 93/94 & 94/95 Finest Refractors were dead a few years afterwards... then they picked up and were "hot" until the end of the decade - when the 94/95 was over $5k!!! Now what's it at? Jordan's first auto - 96 SPX - was at $3k... has gown way down... now is back up - but not even back to the $3k!

I'm sure people can toss out a buch of other examples - I say just grab a few old Becketts or Tuff Stuff from early, mid, and late 90's and enjoy! I'm sure a handful of the great Jordan cards will stand the test of time, but the majority will part of the roller coaster...

And I like and agree with russogd3's comment that "I don't think Jordan is going to crash any harder than anyone else, I believe that when the crash comes It will affect the entire hobby." If his cards do crash because of lack of interest or something other than people jumping on another player - it will take the hobby with it! As a onetime owner of 10 sets of 93/94 First Days - that set was just as rare as the 93/94 UD Electric Golds - but the Golds didn't have Jordan so it never took off as much as the First Days! Oh yeah, that set once sold for $2.5k!!! 90's insert sets that didn't have Jordan, no matter how rare - weren't as in demand as sets that had Mike... that's how it was and how it will be until someone else averages in the mid 30 ppg while taking his team to the Finals for several years... As long as Jordan is seen as the greatest ever his cards will influence the market and lose less than others in down times and move up more than others in uptrends.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 12, 2011 6:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

m1000 wrote:
ok i'd like to address some of those topics but I hope the conversation doesn't veer too far off from the questions in the first post.

regarding the first bgs 9.5 and bgs 10 rookies:
i think professional grading as a whole, has proven to be a niche market where the FIRST high grade of any significant card will go for an obscene premium, BECAUSE of the rarity of the population of that grade. every succeeding high grade thereafter raises the population and de-values previous known versions. there is possibility that there may always be ANOTHER bgs 9.5 or bgs 10 out there that hasn't been graded yet because it hasn't been submitted yet. the amount of possible bgs 9.5 and 10s can only get bigger, not smaller. the prices go down accordingly as population rises.

the examples of Total D, Team Leaders, Finest Test Refractors... their 'hotness' occurred in the 90's and during the days prior to ebay becoming the norm, right? is that a fair comparison?

i think the jordan market is the first sustained upward trend (at least three years running?) we've seen in the internet age, so it is somewhat uncharted territory and can't be compared to 90's card show 'hot cards' or late 90's/early 2000's internet days.

is it fair to label the jordan market simply as "hype?" how many weeks/months/years does trend need to sustain itself before the "hype" term is disregarded and the market is simply recognized as a stable long term market?


Has not been 3 years, because the first very high sales were very few and far between and some of those inserts "coincidentally" started to get hot and go up when that massive thread on hobby kings started about 2 years ago.

I think that the general card market is going to get soft and that will lead to deflation of the assets but also the craze will be satisfied in the next year to 2 years and then Jordan cards are going to be closer to what they were before. Basketball cards always have cycles and right now the Jordan cards are on an uptrend but as demand is satisfied, then the prices wont be able to keep inflating. Volume has a huge effect on prices, both up and down and right now the low volume is contributing to high prices but soon that volume will help contribute to lower prices. My guess is most of the 90's stuff will be selling about 50% of its peak in the next year or year and a half. The ultra highend? Well I think all you have to do is look at where those MJ auto jerseys to 23 and the 97-98 and 98-99 Autos sell today... about 20-30% of what they did 10+ years ago.

Iversonexquisite gave a good break down and analysis on it.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 12, 2011 6:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cool, i appreciate the thoughts so far @iverson @clipper @russ

thats the type of in depth explanations I was hoping I'd get, beyond just..
"its all hype" "its fake" etc..

is it fair to label EVERY market as 'hype' seeing as how many (griffin, wall, exquisite, graded, durant, westbrook, rose, lebron, wade, etc) of these have more up and down swings in a matter of weeks compared to the fairly one sided upward trend of jordan cards (years)?

is it fair to disregard all big sales on ANY market?

how much of an impact do you think hobby kings actually has on ebay markets?
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 12, 2011 6:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

IversonExquisite brought up a very valid point about the U.S. dollar. The dollar has been gradually devalued over the past few years. If anyone here knows anything about currency strength, you know that the strength of the dollar is rapidly declining and is far less than it was years ago. The weakened dollar has contributed to prices on virtually everything to skyrocket, including cards.

Also true about most cards going down over time. Jordan Fleer RC was constantly over 800-1,000 (Beckett for what it's worth) for probably a decade plus. In the last few years card has shot down to 600. Jordan Finest Orange Border Test Refractors 2,500 for the longest time, now as of late 1,500.
Other than the extremely rare cards like 97-98 PMG's, 97-98 Credentials and several other "super rare" mega inserts, most cards will see decline in the long run.

I will also touch on the BGS and other graded card craze currently going on. First off, I will say that I don't have anything against graded cards, I own probably over 100 of them. I believe the graded card craze bubble will burst sooner than later. It is hilarious how people try to pass off a pop 1 GmMnt 9.5 of a card that is #d to 100-200 as a 1/1. What is even more ridiculous to me is that people pay exorbitant amounts of money for these "1/1's" to later find out that only 4 of the 100 have been graded. Ebay is filled with clowns who own a card worth 100 (beckett) and usually sells for roughly 100, but thinks that a 9.5 is worth 1,000 or more (on a card that isn't even in a condition sensitive set!!!).

Either way, I can see the market drastically slowing down on the demand for 9.5's/10's with outrageous price tags on them.

I am all about cards being in mint condition, but I guess I am just a little old school when it comes to this. In my mind, if a card is mint, it's mint, end of story. I'm not going to bust a magnifying glass to inspect for a minor surface infraction, and have my day be ruined when I notice my card isn't completely flawless.

Anyways, enough ranting, let me know if there's anyone else out there who thinks that card grading is WAY overrated.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 12, 2011 7:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd agree that 99% of grading cards is overrated! I was actually able to feed my hobby addiction for many years thanks to graded cards! Before I could afford the high end stuff, I got what most people got - and graded cards were there to make sure the card wasn't fake, and allowed some of use on Prodigy (or similar) message boards to more easliy trade cards as we went with what PSA said the grade was, not our own subjective grade. Back then, a Gem Mint card sold for close to book value - maybe more, maybe a bit less. But not the huge mulitpliers they do now. That changed with Population reports and people using graded cards like "inserts". I figured unlike other inserts that have a finite number availale, if the price of a graded card gets too high, people will just buy the wax and grade more cards as it will be worth it - so there can only be "more" of the grade over time... I sold a bunch of mine for pretty good prices and bought a bunch of parallel cards - they've gone down a bunch too - but at least I was able to get them! Smile

It's crazy to see people pay a premium for cards that are already in good shape, are already limited, and are not impacted by counterfeits... that can't last in my opinion unless the greater fool theory holds... I think the premium will always be there for cards with lots of counterfeits - I woulnd't even purchase an MJ RC unless it was graded - and for cards that are known to be condition sensitive - it makes sense to pay a bit more for high grades. I think 03/04 Exquisite will be one where a Gem Mint of a card will still be worth at least double (or quadruple Wink) of an ungraded or low grade card just because they are so condition sensitive... but paying a multiple on say an UD Glass or Topps Pristine high grade? Crazy!!!
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 12, 2011 10:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mike. I know you were asking for skeptics, and i am certainly not. But let me jump into the debate to clear some things up.

1. The lowest prices paid in the Jordan 90s market were seen in Summer/Fall of 2006. So, the trend is reaching close to 5 years, not 2 as was mentioned here. Prices were really spiking over the last 2 years, but a collector already in 2009 had to pay, on average, 50 - 100% more for Jordans best 90s then 3 years earlier.

2. There is basically NO correlation between a weakness or strength in the dollar and card prices. While nobody denies, that a weaker dollar makes purchases for foreign collectors cheaper, history tells a different story:
The dollar indeed dropped during the past 5 years. But not nearly as much as was suggested here. Its basically off by about 12% over the last half decade, dropping from around 85 in 2006 to 75 lately:

So, thats about 12% only vs. runups of some 100 - 800% in USD nominated prices over the past 5 years. But as can be seen, there has been a drop-off of some 50% in the value of the USD from 2002 right through 2006 (and a little beyond). What happened to card prices ? MJs 90s did NOT double or triple, but dropped significantly. Why ? See 4.

3. As for the Big-Men Z-Force on Court Z-Peat. Actually was one of the worst performing cards pricewise over the last years. Russogd3 mentioned that one of his friends sold that card for 250 USD and it should be worth 1500 USD today. Real prices are far away from that. Latest price paid was 586 USD to an HK-member on eBay. Only a PSA 10 specimen changed hands for 1800 USD already this year, but that should be a POP 1 or POP 2.

4. Regarding prices during the 90s.... you simply can not compare card prices during a non-internet-age and active-player-age vs. internet and long retired athlete. Mike already made some good points regarding the internet, but the dust only settles once a player retires. Thats when the wannabee-collectors part with the hobby and the true collectors start determining prices on their own. Remember Lebron James Exquisite Patch AU RC /99 once trading at 15 k ? Changed hands below 9k lately and how much does one think would this one go for if he would finish his career today, lets say 5 years from now ? 3k, 4k ? Certainly not a fair example, as several rings were built into the 15k price. But still, the point is active vs. retired. Thats a drastic difference. Take a player away from daily TV- and paper appearances, let all the hype and dust settle a bit and card prices will generally drop.

5. Regarding the "low volume" of today. Exactly the opposite is happening out there.
Huge volume out there, exponentially growing market. Here are the numbers:
During all of 2010 218 MJ 90s cards worth at least 500 USD each changed hands on eBay for a combined volume of 257.872 USD
As of today (thats 5 months and 12 days into 2011) coincidentally 218 MJ 90s cards worth at least 500 USD each changed
hands on eBay for a combined volume of 361.782 USD.
So we are up a whopping 40% over 2010 already with more then 6 months to go... Thats not even taken into consideration the recent trend of ending MJ 90s auctions early because of significant offers outside of eBay, as was presumably the case with these 2 examples:
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=370516662842&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT
http://cgi.ebay.com/98-99-MICHAEL-JORDAN-FLEER-PLAYMAKERS-THEATRE-BGS-9-5-/190542037913?pt=US_Basketball&hash=item2c5d30c399
So, volume is growing exponentially and thats THE main reason for rising prices as well.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 12, 2011 10:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So, let me add a short summary and then I will let this thread belong to the skeptics. But as you can see above, its not always as it seems to be. So here is a short summary:

As the trend is close to 5 years old (or should we say young ?), MJ long retired and the USD not having a big influence, the main driving force seems to be growing volume. Only if volume slows significantly or trading cards take a big hit in general, a huge price decline is imaginable. But if you know, why volume is growing exponentially you can draw some conclusions for the future - its the growing income and wealth of MJ-collectors now usually aged 30 - 45. Here are the numbers of CNNs Money Net Worth for Income by Age:
* < 25: $1,475
* 25 34: $8,525
* 35 44: $51,575
* 45 54: $98,350
* 55 64: $180,125
* 65+: $232,000
and the family wealth numbers by age (2004 federal reserve survey) Family net worth - age of head in years:
less then 35: 73.500 USD
35-44: 299.200 USD
45-54: 542.700 USD
55-64: 843.800 USD
65-74: 690.900 USD
75 or more: 528.100 USD

So, if thats true. And i strongly suggest if, because nobody knows. Then we can prepare ourselves for quite some prices in years ahead. 1 - 2k for an MJ-AU of the 90s should be regarded as a weeks income for many potentially interested parties. Thats why 1 - 2k should be considered way too low, not bubble like territory. Just another thought Wink

And very important here ! As i get lots of PNs and know, that quite some collectors follow my writings. Please be reminded, that i can be completely wrong. Do your own research before you start considering buying, because in the end we are only talking a piece of cardboard with (at the very best) a signature of a great athlete on. Intrinsic value can potentially be close to 0. Do NOT buy if you cant afford. There are more important things in life. Thanks for taking the time.
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 12, 2011 11:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

To a point that I don't think anyone answered yet, I do agree that HobbyKings impacts the hobby quite considerably. I've been collecting Kobe 90's cards for 5 years now. ABout 2 years ago when that large 90's gala thread began, I started seeing increased competition and severe spike in prices for a lot of the Kobe's I was still trying to obtain.

With every new post highlighting new 'mojo' showcasing a products best features, it assists in someone wanting that same card.

Connsumers can't want what they don't know about, and want what is already perceived as 'cool'.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2011 2:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So jvenomx - hobbykings is the new "up arrows" Wink I agree with the premise of your point, but am not sure if there are enough people checking out HK for this site to move much... I do know that many people in the hobby are sheep and want to be told what to collect - the folks who used to jump on anything with up arrows in Beckett... only to buy near the top and chase the next hot cards. This happened to me several years ago with Exquisite - I had a deal to sell an 03/04 base set for $1,500 but the guy backed out. Then the next Beckett came out with all up arrows on the set and he wanted the deal again - and I sold it MINUS the Iverson - which he had to pay up for to complete the set. A month before he didn't want the set at that price, but because somoeone else told him it's a good set to have - he wanted it (I think I even made a thread on here about it Wink)

daveduffield - great analysis! Not sure I agree with your take, other than the increase in volume which we already touched on. Again, not sure what that increase is due to - Panini, lack of interest in other players, Jordan still reigning king, etc... but one thing struck me with your numbers - and may be why so many people think "bubble" - you say we are up 40% in ONE YEAR???? Look at any stock bubble, real estate, etc... sustainable growth is a nice steady line (may have some dips and falls) - but a hockey stick or drastic move in one direction usually says BEWARE! Look at your dollar chart (which shows it went from 120 to 75 in the last decade) - you can draw a line from the 120 to 75 and it shows a steady downturn. Some prices a bit above some a bit below the trendline, but overall it's a steady trend that has held. If you look short term, it might have looked like the bottom would fall out in the first few years, or that a huge recovery was on it's way at the end of 2008 - but overall it's been steadily down... a 40% spike in anything in suggests overbought and profit taking will happen. Will it happen soon, or after another 200%? Nobody can be sure, but in the meantime, I'm buying tulips Wink
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

m1000 wrote:
cool, i appreciate the thoughts so far @iverson @clipper @russ


is it fair to disregard all big sales on ANY market?


Of course it is, is this a trick question? If all tulip bulbs are going for $1k a piece they must be worth it???

Love MJ, own many of his auto'd cards and game-used, but the insert bubble is going to burst. Sorry if that hurts anyone.

It may be the MJ insert hype, OR the whole market. But it will come back down. 7% a year growth in prices means they'll all double in 10 years, tell me if you
honestly think that will happen.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

'Huge volume out there, exponentially growing market. Here are the numbers:
During all of 2010 218 MJ 90s cards worth at least 500 USD each changed hands on eBay for a combined volume of 257.872 USD
As of today (thats 5 months and 12 days into 2011) coincidentally 218 MJ 90s cards worth at least 500 USD each changed
hands on eBay for a combined volume of 361.782 USD.
So we are up a whopping 40% over 2010 already with more then 6 months to go... Thats not even taken into consideration the recent trend of ending MJ 90s auctions early'


This is evidence of a bubble, not the lack of one.

Doesn't mean they won't keep going higher for a while.

Secondly, euro has gone from 82c to a high of $1.60 before $1.445 today. That's a 76% rise in ~10 years. That does have an impact, even if small. AUD, CAD, JPY similarly. JPY was 145 and is now 80/$1. Etc.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

@daveduffield,

Here is some info based of historical records of inflation (U.S. Dollar)

2010-2011 inflation rate of the U.S. dollar is 3.1%
2009-2011 is 4.8%
2008-2011 is 4.5%
2007-2011 is 8.5%
2006-2011 is 11.6%
2005-2011 is 15.2%
2000-2011 is 30.6%
1995-2011 is 47.6%

Short periods of time like a one to three years may not cause a huge effect of the deflating dollar, however, I believe it is effecting us more than it seems. In the long run, it is devastating. It is like the whole frog in boiling water theory, it comes on us slow, so it is hard to recognize what is happening.

At least a good portion, if not a majority of high end 90's cards are overseas. It is very common for me to be bidding on cards in Korea, China, Australia, Belgium, Philippines and so on. Lets say an international bidder bids on a card (depending on their currency) for $200. Compared to 95, that same $200 now requires $300 for the U.S. dollar to hold the same weight. That scale only gets worse and uglier as the prices go up.

However, I do not believe that this alone has caused several cards to go for up to %300-400 more than usual.

Here is a link for a Jordan Big Men on Court that is active right now, not even a ZPEAT.

http://cgi.ebay.com/BGS-9-5-96-SKYBOX-BMOC-BIG-MEN-COURT-MICHAEL-JORDAN-GEM-/150616141847?pt=US_Basketball&hash=item23116bf017

it is already over $800 with over a day to go. Yes it is a 9.5, but the Big Men on Court isn't a condition sensitive set. It's not like we are dealing with 93-94 scoring kings, 92-93 beam team, or a 97-98 PMG.

Beckett POP report shows that there has only been 12 of those cards graded, and this is an unnumbered card (which shows that only a small number of these cards have actually been graded through BGS). Of the 12, half of them are 9.0 and above, and only one below an 8.5.

Based off that, I believe that in this market today, the ZPEAT Big Men would bring over 1500 ungraded. The odds state that it's a 1:2 chance (based off POP report) to get a BGS 9 for any new submissions.

Regardless, based off the current auction, it's obvious that a ZPEAT Big Men would get a hell of a lot more than a couple hundred bucks and some change.

To prove my point even further, there is a 97-98 Big Men on Court currently listed in an ungraded condition that still has over 4 days to go and is a hair under $300 with 13 bids. In addition, the 1996-97 ZPEAT Big men books for $600 currently with up arrows, the 97-98 @ $250 with no arrows.

http://cgi.ebay.com/97-98-Michael-Jordan-Z-Force-Big-Men-Court-Mint-/300566532550?pt=US_Basketball&hash=item45fb2951c6
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 13, 2011 6:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

IversonExquisite wrote:

daveduffield - great analysis! .. but one thing struck me with your numbers - and may be why so many people think "bubble" - you say we are up 40% in ONE YEAR???? Look at any stock bubble, real estate, etc... sustainable growth is a nice steady line (may have some dips and falls) - but a hockey stick or drastic move in one direction usually says BEWARE! Look at your dollar chart (which shows it went from 120 to 75 in the last decade) - you can draw a line from the 120 to 75 and it shows a steady downturn. Some prices a bit above some a bit below the trendline, but overall it's a steady trend that has held. If you look short term, it might have looked like the bottom would fall out in the first few years, or that a huge recovery was on it's way at the end of 2008 - but overall it's been steadily down... a 40% spike in anything in suggests overbought and profit taking will happen. Will it happen soon, or after another 200%? Nobody can be sure, but in the meantime, I'm buying tulips Wink


Thanks, IversonExquisite. Let me clear one thing up. We are not only up 40%. You have to take time into consideration as well. Here is the math, if one does so:
365 days in 2010 - 257.872 USD (worth in sales of MJ 90s of all cards valued at least 500 USD each)
163 days in 2010 - 361.782 USD
361.782 / 163 x 365 = 810.125 USD (for 365 days if things do not change from here on)
So, actually, if we adjust for time we are up (volume wise) by 214%. Many of that is attributable to some big ticket items, i.e. 97-98 Upper Deck Game JSY AU /23 selling for 32.000 USD, a 99-00 Final Floor AU 1/1 selling for sthg. around 9.300 USD and so on.
Now, i know, that this supports your theory of a bubble even more. And i do agree with your theory to an extent, at least as long as we are talking real economy. Its very hard to let a real business grow by rates of 30% or more annually. Its possible, but very hard to do as you need to adjust manufacturing, financing, staff, etc. Thats extremely tough to manage. And sooner or later a business will be too big to be able to manage growth and they will have to enter a period of consolidation.

Now, and here we may disagree. With collectibles there is no such thing as managing manufacturing, staff, etc.. There are basically no limits to the upside. We are certainly talking exceptions, not rules here. But there are these exceptions and all have one thing in common. These collectibles are widely regarded by collectors participating as THE collectibles to own in their collecting area. Again we are talking exceptions. Talking the blue mauritius regarding stamps, talking the 1913 Liberty Nickel (a coin once unsold at around 3.000 USD, now worth an estimated 5.000.000 USD) regarding coins or talking the Picassos, Monets, van Goghs or Renoirs regarding paintings. All of these collectibles are household names beyond active collectors in their specific area. And thats exactly whats so interesting about the Jordan 90s market. MJ is a household name with a solid reputation around the world and his best collectibles out of his active days are rather limited. Now again, this does not mean that we are going to see a 97-98 UD Game JSY AU /23 eclipsing 100.000 USD or even 1.000.000 USD ever. But its certainly possible as the best collectibles in the world never needed a solid uptrend, but spiked by nearly every sale (if such a sale happens only once every 3 years or so).

@russogd3 - Here is the link for that last sale of an ungraded Big Men Z-Peat
http://rover.ebay.com/rover/1/711-53200-19255-0/1?campid=5337015507&customid=&toolid=10001&mpre=http%3A%2F%2Fcgi.ebay.com%2Fws%2FeBayISAPI.dll%3FViewItem%26_rdc%3D1%26_trksid%3Dp4340.l2557%26item%3D150611291943%26nma%3Dtrue%26rt%3Dnc%26ru%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fshop.ebay.com%253A80%252Fi.html%253F_from%253DR40%2526_trksid%253Dm570%2526_nkw%253D150611291943%2526_fvi%253D1%26si%3D%25252B%25252FdyeONeI583Qq%25252BywN9hMMF8bxs%25253D
Even though an optimist regarding MJs 90s, i suggest there is no way you get 1000 USD+ for this card in ungraded condition for the time being.

Thats really it for me here. A thread for the skeptics and i do not belong into that group (even though dips here and there, especially if we are talking unlimited 90s inserts, are more then likely down the road) Wink
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2011 1:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ok question..

i know iverson mentioned stuff is cyclical and to an extent i can see his point, even though, to me, a lot of those 90's prices on refractors, jerseys, etc are somewhat incomparable to today's ebay market, where ANY card, no matter how rare, is attainable by anyone once it hits ebay. that is, opposed to the 90's climate, where, as a collector, if you a saw rare card at a card show even though it was #d to say, 100 or 500, that might be the ONLY time you'd see that type of card the whole year. so, to me, the dealer could hold that card hostage, knowing that if the collector wanted it, the collector would have to pay the dealer's asking price, as opposed to now, where the collector determines the prices by how much he is willing to pay more than the next collector. the dealer doesn't really have as much say in the final price. (unless he sets a reserve or minimum)

i've noticed some of the lower tiered inserts are hitting/approaching around $50 now.

stuff such as zforce vortex, finest arena stars, finest hardwood honors, some bowmans best atomic refractors, topps chrome 40 refractor, smooth grooves.

i've never really paid attention to them before, so i dont know if they've hovered around this price range for a while or if they were $20-$30 cards that are starting to pick up steam.

can anyone give insight?

also, if these were $20-$30 cards for a while, were they EVER getting $50, during his playing days? then cooled off once he retired?
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2011 9:09 pm    Post subject: Re: jordan inserts SKEPTICS: your opinions wanted! Reply with quote

My replies in bold below within your quoted OP...

m1000 wrote:
ok, this is a general question not meant to attack anyone's opinion. i just want to get a better idea about your thoughts, if you're in the belief that jordan insert prices are over inflated and these current prices are "fake"

i've read people's opinions that there is a bubble, that the market will crash, and crash hard. while no one has been specific and they're generally vague when this issue comes up, i'm hoping to get a little more detailed.

hopefully, if you're a skeptic, you can shed some light on your opinion for me.

1 what does this bubble apply to?
is it all encompassing or is it segmented? does it apply to only 90's inserts of mj? or does it apply to 2000's as well? is it only for numbered cards? or just for unnumbered cards? just inserts? or memorabilia and autos too?
I think the term bubble applies to any commodity that acquires higher than usual interest that eventually wanes as fast as it started. So the term can really only truly be applied after the fact. If prices of a certain card for example goes up 200% only to fall back to where it was or lower, definitely the term bubble applies to this.

The bubbles can be of many scales. The general bubble for example is when the whole community as a whole is doing well (like when the economy is good and unemployment is low and everyone has income that can be spent on luxury items) and more than willing to spend on non-necessity items. Once the economy sours, this bubble bursts. It can also be applied to smaller scales like say (no offense to collectors or those who prospected) players like Darius Miles or Darko Milicic. These are also bubbles that were of a limited scale and shorter-term. They are bubbles that eventually burst nonetheless.

And the term bubble can apply to anything. It doesn't even have to be rare or numbered. Some of the cards mentioned above like the Total Ds, Power In The Keys, Team Leaders... these are all bubbles of unnumbered inserts that eventually burst.


2 when you say it will crash, what % would you define as a 'cash?' 25% of current levels? 50%? 75%? 100%?
Doesn't matter what percent. If people say it will just keep on going up and it doesn't, that is the bubble bursting.

3 also, if prices do soften, how do you determine if it is truly collectors/investors getting "out" or "dumping" as opposed to newer collectors getting their 'wants' filled, and thus, slightly lowering the overall demand as their collections fill holes
You can't. The only way to obviously find this out is to conduct a survey of everyone who bought a certain card over the past few years and determine why they bought the card.

4 when do you see this crash happening? in the next 6 weeks? 6 months? 2 years? can you give it a time frame?
In terms of general perspective, if you can predict the next economic crisis, then you can predict the next crash. Since no one can really predict the future, I don't know how anyone can state it with absolute certainty. However, everyone will have some kind of opinion and will have their own basis for it.

the thing that gets me curious the most is the term 'hype.'
when i think of the word hype and cards, i think it best applies to:

1 players cards' prices during playoff time, as each game/series can make monumental shifts in current market prices, based on media attention and collectors/investors wanting to cash in or buy before prices change dramatically in the immediate future

2 rookies, during their rookie year, as case/box/pack busters use it to sell cards they've just opened

3 players (especially young players) putting up numbers higher than expected and collectors/dealers/investors who have stock in their cards, as they try to sell them to the player collectors/hype followers who think there is more room for growth

4 obscure cards that grade and/or low pop graded cards
Hype applies to all of the above. Whether the hype is justified or not depends on whether the hype ends up being a bubble.

IMO, the michael jordan card market does not seem to follow any of those parameters in terms of what hype is.
Jordan is past hype. His career is over. His legend is cemented. So his collectors usually don't go on hype. They go on the memory of that wonderful feeling they had when they watched Jordan play and when they relive their favorite MJ moments, when they go on youtube and watch clips of his highlights, and when their feathers are ruffled every time someone coming into the NBA is labeled as the next Michael Jordan and (so far) watch everyone fall short of the comparison.

Jordan collectors are also now older, with more stable jobs, and more income that can go to luxury items such as cards. And there are MANY of them. Majority of them however are somewhat transient. Some of them just want one particular card and is willing too pay twice the usual amount for it and then not buy anything else... just to say he has a Michael Jordan auto. That sale will end up being an outlier. Some of them go on spurts or a spree only to rethink why he/she is spending so much money on a small piece of cardboard and all of a sudden stop.

That would mean that the TRUE Jordan market is really dependent on the real fans who are also real collectors... the ones that have been collecting for years and will continue to do so in the coming years. And the market will depend on how well these people are doing economically. If they do well, then the Jordan market will no doubt continue to escalate over time especially if there are going to be less Jordan autos produced. But if a good number of these Jordan collectors all of a sudden need to divert some of their funds elsewhere, the demand for Jordan autos will decrease and the prices of cards will no doubt decrease as well.


i hope to get some answers from all this from you jordan skeptics. I know that there are a fair amount of people on hobby kings who feel that current market prices are unreal, and I hope they are confident enough to shed some specifics on their thoughts.

MIKE


I've read all other responses up to this point and see valid points of discussion. As it is, as young as this thread is, there is a diversity of opinion already. Overall though I feel that our hobby is one of those that is HUGELY affected by hype. The strange thing is, we feed our own hype. HK for example is a place where people from all over the world who can't really talk cards with their real life friends come in a get all excited with each others' maildays. To me, that is one way we "hype" our cards. We see so and so having this and that and say well, that doesn't look too bad. I want me one of them too. We have our own HK mini-hype going on. It is neither good nor bad. It is just how things are.
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 20, 2011 10:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

two reasons:
1. the market demand for Jodan inserts is steep - highly inelastic
2. winner's curse
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 21, 2011 3:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

daveduffield wrote:
Mike. I know you were asking for skeptics, and i am certainly not. But let me jump into the debate to clear some things up.

1. The lowest prices paid in the Jordan 90s market were seen in Summer/Fall of 2006. So, the trend is reaching close to 5 years, not 2 as was mentioned here. Prices were really spiking over the last 2 years, but a collector already in 2009 had to pay, on average, 50 - 100% more for Jordans best 90s then 3 years earlier.

2. There is basically NO correlation between a weakness or strength in the dollar and card prices. While nobody denies, that a weaker dollar makes purchases for foreign collectors cheaper, history tells a different story:
The dollar indeed dropped during the past 5 years. But not nearly as much as was suggested here. Its basically off by about 12% over the last half decade, dropping from around 85 in 2006 to 75 lately:

So, thats about 12% only vs. runups of some 100 - 800% in USD nominated prices over the past 5 years. But as can be seen, there has been a drop-off of some 50% in the value of the USD from 2002 right through 2006 (and a little beyond). What happened to card prices ? MJs 90s did NOT double or triple, but dropped significantly. Why ? See 4.

3. As for the Big-Men Z-Force on Court Z-Peat. Actually was one of the worst performing cards pricewise over the last years. Russogd3 mentioned that one of his friends sold that card for 250 USD and it should be worth 1500 USD today. Real prices are far away from that. Latest price paid was 586 USD to an HK-member on eBay. Only a PSA 10 specimen changed hands for 1800 USD already this year, but that should be a POP 1 or POP 2.

4. Regarding prices during the 90s.... you simply can not compare card prices during a non-internet-age and active-player-age vs. internet and long retired athlete. Mike already made some good points regarding the internet, but the dust only settles once a player retires. Thats when the wannabee-collectors part with the hobby and the true collectors start determining prices on their own. Remember Lebron James Exquisite Patch AU RC /99 once trading at 15 k ? Changed hands below 9k lately and how much does one think would this one go for if he would finish his career today, lets say 5 years from now ? 3k, 4k ? Certainly not a fair example, as several rings were built into the 15k price. But still, the point is active vs. retired. Thats a drastic difference. Take a player away from daily TV- and paper appearances, let all the hype and dust settle a bit and card prices will generally drop.

5. Regarding the "low volume" of today. Exactly the opposite is happening out there.
Huge volume out there, exponentially growing market. Here are the numbers:
During all of 2010 218 MJ 90s cards worth at least 500 USD each changed hands on eBay for a combined volume of 257.872 USD
As of today (thats 5 months and 12 days into 2011) coincidentally 218 MJ 90s cards worth at least 500 USD each changed
hands on eBay for a combined volume of 361.782 USD.
So we are up a whopping 40% over 2010 already with more then 6 months to go... Thats not even taken into consideration the recent trend of ending MJ 90s auctions early because of significant offers outside of eBay, as was presumably the case with these 2 examples:
http://rover.ebay.com/rover/1/711-53200-19255-0/1?campid=5337015507&customid=&toolid=10001&mpre=http%3A%2F%2Fcgi.ebay.com%2Fws%2FeBayISAPI.dll%3FViewItem%26item%3D370516662842%26ssPageName%3DSTRK%3AMEWAX%3AIT
http://rover.ebay.com/rover/1/711-53200-19255-0/1?campid=5337015507&customid=&toolid=10001&mpre=http%3A%2F%2Fcgi.ebay.com%2F98-99-MICHAEL-JORDAN-FLEER-PLAYMAKERS-THEATRE-BGS-9-5-/190542037913?pt=US_Basketball&hash=item2c5d30c399
So, volume is growing exponentially and thats THE main reason for rising prices as well.


you must not be familiar with the term liquidity. Liquidity and volume are nearly synonomous. Anything that has volume of under 100,000 for a year can easily be manipulated. The stock market has companies trading 100's of millions of shares a day, so please dont try to say there is a lot of volume that cant be manipulated. Relative to a card that has 50 sales in a year that might be a lot but under $1,000,000 in total sales is considered high volume? one of my clients could have bought all of those without breaking a sweat, the argument of high volume doesnt hold water.
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 22, 2011 3:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am with ExquisiteCollector on this one. Whatever reasons are stated for/against furhter price development - TALKING about those reasons influences the prices far more then actual REASONS do - this is my perception. Therefore I won't comment all the reasons for price development mentionned.

To many it currently suggests "great investment, the prices will only go up", or "cool mailday, I will be getting myself some of those" - all of which fuels the activitiy. I do currently see most people jumping on those cards for HYPE reasons (and see many of them sell or flip the stuff some time later) - which is neither good or bad, just the way things are. Sometimes you can really follow, that cards discussed on HK immediately jump in SV on ebay - best proof to me, that the sole fact of DISCUSSING cards influence market in a huge way.

just my 2 cents...
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 22, 2011 5:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The future of the Jordan insert card market will be determined strictly by who owns/is buying the cards currently and what their intentions for the cards are.

If the majority of the Jordan insert cards collectors are buying at these high prices for the purpose of flipping/reselling in the future for even more profits, then this bubble will burst, ie, the people who are the most willing currently to purchase now for the sole purpose of profit in the future are driving the prices up on themselves, perhaps the true collectors aren't willing to pay those insane prices and may be willing instead to buy volumes of more affordable cards they don't have.

On the other hand, if the majority of inserts are being purchased by true collectors who have no intention of reselling their cards for a long, long time, then perhaps these prices will sustain, cause these cards will not pop up again.

However, if these same cards keep changing hands by "day traders", then I believe this bubble will burst, because someone is going to get stuck with the "hot potato" and prices will return to more comfortable levels that the true collectors are willing to pay, especially if those "day traders" are strapped for cash.

When it comes down to it, it's always supply and demand. But sometimes the intentions of the demand are not the purest, and this will determine the future value of the cards, ultimately.

My opinion - most of the cards are being purchased by Jordan speculators/day traders. If you've been collecting Jordan for a long time, you have many of these cards already, or are unwilling to pay this much for them because you remember what you could have bought them for before- for a lot less. My recommendations for true Jordan collectors - wait out this upswing, you will see the cards again in the future cause most of these speculators don't want to hold on to this stuff for too long - they will surface again at a more affordable price., in general, for the inserts that aren't serial numbered or are greater than perhaps around 25 in print run.
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 6:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

:dopost - read next page...
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